Find the strike where the most options expire worthless. The classic OPEX-week pin-finder — works for any chain, any expiration.
| Strike | Call OI | Put OI | |
|---|---|---|---|
As expiration approaches, dealers must rebalance their hedges into where most OI sits. Settlement near the max-pain strike means fewer options expire ITM — minimizing the total wealth transferred from option sellers to buyers. The mechanical pull toward that strike is real but not absolute.
Max pain matters most in the final week of monthly expiration. Open interest concentrations have built up over weeks; gamma per contract is highest near expiry; dealer hedging becomes most aggressive. Outside OPEX week, max pain is less actionable.
Macro events (FOMC, CPI, earnings) easily overpower the mechanical pin. Use max pain as one input alongside dealer GEX, sector regime, and macro calendar — never as a standalone trade signal.
Max pain measures where wealth concentrates. Dealer GEX measures the FORCE of dealer hedging at each strike. They often agree (concentrated OI = concentrated gamma) but when they diverge, GEX usually wins — it's the more direct mechanical signal.